Matiang'i Tops Latest Opinion Poll as Majority of Kenyans Express Dissatisfaction with Government Direction.

Matiang'i Tops Latest Opinion Poll as Majority of Kenyans Express Dissatisfaction with Government Direction.

Dr. Antony Ndiragu briefs the press in Nairobi during the unveiling of research findings identifying Kenya’s most popular political figures from a survey conducted across all 47 counties.

By Jeff Oyugi 

NAIROBI - October 31, 2025

A new national opinion poll has revealed that a majority of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, even as former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Matiang'i emerged as the most preferred presidential candidate if elections were held today.

Presenting the findings in Nairobi, Dr. Antony Ndiragu, who led the research team, said the survey was conducted to gauge public sentiment on governance, leadership and key national issues shaping Kenya's political and social landscape.

“Public opinion polls are vital because they give citizens feedback on how their views align with national realities and help shape policy, governance and business decisions," Dr. Ndiragu explained.

The survey was conducted telephonically between September 25 and October 16, 2025, targeting Kenyan residents aged 18 and above. It covered all 47 counties, with a sample size of 3,430 respondents one of the largest in recent years.

The study, fully funded by Dr. Ndiragu's research firm, had a margin of error of 1.67%, indicating high reliability. Respondents were categorized by generations, Gen Z from 15 to 29 years, Millennials/Gen Y from 30 to 44 years and Gen X that's 45 years and above

According to national data referenced in the study, Gen Zs constitute about 51% of Kenya's adult population, followed by Millennials at 27% and Gen X at 22%, underscoring the influence of youth in shaping Kenya's future political direction.

When asked whether they believe Kenya is headed in the right or wrong direction, 61% of respondents said the country was on the wrong path, 19% said it was moving in the right direction, while 20% were undecided.

Across all generations, the sentiment remained largely the same, 57% of Gen Zs said the country is heading in the wrong direction followed by 64% of millennials and lastly Gen X which was at 63%.

County-level analysis showed that Uasin Gishu, Wajir, Tana River, Mandera and Nandi were among the few that viewed the country as moving in the right direction. Counties with the highest dissatisfaction included Nyeri (87%), Kirinyaga (80%), Machakos (77%) and Murang'a (76%).

Kenyans identified the high cost of living and unemployment as the most pressing challenges, each cited by over half of respondents. Other concerns included Poor healthcare (47%), Bad roads (40%), Corruption (36%), High taxation (32%), Poor education system (27%) and Insecurity and food shortages (24%)

“These concerns show that economic hardship continues to dominate public sentiment," said Dr. Ndiragu.

An impressive 91% of respondents said they intend to vote in the next general election, a potential record turnout, Gen Zs were 92% who intend to vote, Millennials were 93% and Gen X were 90%, this translates to a projected 20 million voters in 2027, with Gen Z alone accounting for nearly half.

When asked which politicians they liked or disliked, Babu Owino led in overall popularity, followed by Dr. Fred Matiang'i, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Chief Justice David Maraga, Edwin Sifuna and Martha Karua.

Among Gen Z, Babu Owino was the most popular, while Millennials and Gen X favored Matiang'i.

In the hypothetical presidential race question, Dr. Fred Matiang'i topped the list with 24%, followed closely by President William Ruto at 21%, Kalonzo Musyoka (11%), Babu Owino (6%) and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (6%).

Other candidates such as Uhuru Kenyatta and David Maraga tied at 5%, while Ndindi Nyoro, Martha Karua and George Wajackoyah scored below 3%.

Notably, Matiang'i led in a majority of counties, including Kisii, Nyamira, Kiambu, Nakuru, Meru, Kilifi and Mombasa, while Ruto maintained dominance in his traditional strongholds such as Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho and Bomet.

Kalonzo Musyoka led in Machakos, Kitui and Makueni, while Gachagua was only top in Kirinyaga and Embu.

Respondents were also asked whether they would re-elect their current governors. Murang'a County recorded the highest approval rating, followed by Homa Bay, while several counties showed low re-election sentiment, indicating warning public trust in devolved leadership.

Dr. Ndiragu said the findings paint a clear picture of a politically aware population, driven by economic concerns but increasingly eager to participate in democratic processes.

“Gen Z will be the defining generation in the next election. Their size and enthusiasm mean they will determine the future of Kenya's political leadership,” he noted.

The survey, with its comprehensive county-by-county breakdown, marks one of the most detailed snapshots yet of Kenya's evolving political mood ahead of 2027.